World Group Semifinals

Czech Republic 4 @ Croatia 1 -- Winning the first three rubbers of the semifinal, Tomas Berdych was left with nothing more to do on Sunday than eat some tasty looking ice cream on the sidelines.  The clay surface the Croatians picked is still an inexplicable choice to me, and one that gave them little chance of winning.  Berdych and Stepanek are far more competent clay courters than Karlovic and Cilic, and the Croats are lucky their matches were as close as they were.  The Czechs will almost certainly play on clay again in the final against Spain, and should have a good shot at giving the defending champions a scare.

Israel 1 @ Spain 4 -- As expected, Spain trounced Israel to make its second straight Davis Cup final, getting the chance to defend its title at home vs. the Czech Republic in December.  Even a neutered Spanish squad without their top two players (Rafael Nadal and Fernando Verdasco) steamrolled the Israelis.  The way Spain demolished Israel makes Russia's loss to them in the quarterfinals look all the worse.  Spain will go into the final as heavy favorites, but the Czechs should put up more resistance than the Israelis.  Berdych and Stepanek are at least capable of beating anybody on the Spanish team, Nadal and Verdasco included.  It should be a surprisingly competitive final.

World Group Playoffs:

France 4 @ Netherlands 1 -- This tie looked like it had the potential to be interesting early on, with Thiemo de Bakker stunning a sleepy Gael Monfils to put the orange clad Dutch on top early.  But Jo-Wilfried Tsonga restored order, defeating de Bakker and Jesse Huta Galung in singles and teaming with Michael Llodra to win the doubles, carrying France on its way to keeping its much deserved spot in the World Group.

Uzbekistan 0 @ Serbia 5 -- Serbia did not need the services of Novak Djokovic to dispatch Uzbekistan, with Janko Tipsarevic and Viktor Troicki taking care of business in singles before Tipsarevic and Nenad Zimonjic finished off the Uzbeks in doubles.  Kudos are in order for Ilija Bozoljac, the craziest player in the ATP next to Daniel Koellerer, for picking up a win in the deadest of fifth rubbers.

Ecuador 3 @ Brazil 2  -- This is a pretty terrible loss for Brazil, but especially for Thomaz Bellucci, whose straight sets loss to Nicolas Lapentti was the difference maker.  Marcelo Melo and Andre Sa also should have been able to beat the Lapenttis in doubles, but the majority of the blame for this loss has to fall on Bellucci.

Switzerland 3 @ Italy 2 -- Roger Federer showed up to this tie for Switzerland, which tells you everything you need to know.  It was never clear why Federer pulled out of doubles after saying he would play it.  Maybe he was afraid he wouldn't be able to control his urge to reenact his bizarre gold medal celebration with Stan Wawrinka?

Romania 2 @ Sweden 3 -- Pretty straightforward win for Sweden, who with the much-improved play of Robin Soderling finally look like they deserve the World Group spot they've held for so long. Romania would have been an easy win for whomever they faced, so probably best to leave them out of the World Group.

Austria 2 @ Chile 3 -- The most competitive tie of the weekend was between Austria and Chile, the latter without their star Fernando Gonzalez.  Nicolas Massu is at his best when playing under the Chilean flag, and was able to defeat Stefan Koubek in four sets in the deciding fifth rubber.  Paul Capdeville also was impressive in his first live Davis Cup action, pushing Jurgen Melzer and getting a win over Stefan Koubek. Given how fun he would be as a teammate it's not surprising that Daniel Koellerer was left off the Austrian team, but as his ranking continues to rise it will be tougher and tougher to rationalize playing without him.

India 4 @ South Africa 1 -- A soft draw for both countries, giving India an opportunity to have Somdev Devvarman carry them into the World Group for the first time in over ten years.  I thought South Africa would be able to get some singles wins out of Wesley Moodie and Kevin Anderson, but instead they relied on weaker options in Izak van der Merwe and Rik de Voest, neither of whom played particularly well.

Ukraine 2 @ Belgium 3 -- Again a soft draw for both countries, which somebody had to win.  I'm willing to bet that the three games Sergei Bubka managed to win in his 6-2, 6-1, 6-0 loss to Steve Darcis set a record for fewest games won in a deciding Davis Cup fifth rubber match.   That's a choke of decidedly epic proportions.

Well below the World Group playoff level, one noteworthy result from the relegation to Europe/Africa Zonal Group I Relegation matches:

Poland 3 @ Great Britain 2 -- Andy Murray won his two matches, but #302-ranked Daniel Evans was unable to win so much as a set against his two comparably ranked Polish opponents, spelling doom for the British Davis Cup team on home soil in Liverpool. The Brits' loss sends them to the bowels of Davis Cup, Europe/Africa Zonal Group II.  Europe/Africa Zonal II, for those unfamiliar with Davis Cup structure, is the home of such tennis powerhouses as Monaco, Egypt, and Turkey.  Of all the problems that plague the LTA, this inability to stay respectable in Davis Cup might be the most telling.  For a country that hosts the biggest tournament in the world, the ATP World Tour Finals, and features the current ATP #3, not being able to find a player to defeat Michael Przysienzy is beyond inexcusable.  Tim Henman or Greg Rusedski, years into retirement, would have been able to come back and win a match in this tie easily.  This is the country that gets to wild card seven of their own into Wimbledon? Ridiculous.

For the second time in two ties, Croatia played two five-setters on the first day of Davis Cup action.  But unlike on their opening day sweep of the Americans in July, the opening day of semifinals in Porec found the Croatians on the losing end of both matches.

The jaw-dropping scoreline of the day (and possibly the year) came from the first match, in which Radek Stepanek defeated Ivo Karlovic 6-7(5), 7-6(5), 7-6(6), 6-7(2), 16-14.  While the 5 hour, 59 minute match was close, it wasn't particularly exciting.  The two traded breaks in the second and third games of the match, but then held for the next seventy-three consecutive games before Stepanek mercifully broke in the twenty-ninth game of the fifth set.

Not only did Karlovic's 78 aces break the previous record for aces in a match, it humiliated the record.  The previous record, also set by Karlovic, was "only" 55, set at Roland Garros this year against Lleyton Hewitt.  Not surprising that both the current and previous records were set by Karlovic, but a little surprising that both came on clay courts.

On top of the 78 aces, Karlovic hit 46 service winners.  Combined with his aces, that makes 124 of 245 points in which Stepanek was not able to get Karlovic's serve back in play.  That's less than half.  For his part, Stepanek had only 14 aces, though 80 service winners.

In the day's shorter match, the one that took only three hours and forty-eight minutes, Tomas Berdych held off Marin Cilic's rally to win 6-3, 6-3, 3-6, 4-6, 6-3.

Berdych was money on the biggest points, converting all five break points he held. Cilic went three-for-six.   Converting half of your break points is not a shabby percentage in the slightest, but when you can't save a single one on your own serve, a win probably isn't in the cards.

It's a nice win for Berdych, who stopped himself from blowing a two-set lead for the second time this year, having previously lost the final three sets of a five setter vs. Roger Federer in the Australian Open earlier this year. 

As nice a win as it was for Berdych, it's a disappointing loss for Cilic.  Coming on the heels of beating Andy Murray and making his first grand slam quarterfinal at the US Open, Berdych is a player he should be expected to beat.  Cilic also won the third and fourth sets after dropping the first two in his second round match at the US Open, eventually beating a completely demoralized Jesse Levine 6-0 in the fifth.  But Berdych is a far superior player to Levine, (obviously), and did not wilt the way Cilic may have expected.

It will be interesting to see who each team plays in Saturday's doubles rubber.  Czech Lukas Dlouhy, fresh off a second straight US Open title, is the only player whose presence should be a given.  It would be difficult for either Karlovic or Cilic to bounce back after their heartbreaking losses, but at least one of them needs to play if Croatia is to have a shot of staying alive.  Lovro Zovko and Roko Karanusic can't possibly beat any combination of Czechs.

Regardless of who they play in the doubles, the writing may already be on the wall for the Croats.  The clay surface is definitely not advantageous for Croatia against the Czechs, and may ultimately prove their undoing.  Why the host Croats picked a surface that neutralizes their power advantage is inexplicable to me, and may ultimately prove to be their undoing.

The semifinals of the Davis Cup begin Friday, with all four ties seemingly winnable for both sides. Three of them, surprisingly enough for July, are being held indoors. Coverage of the Israel-Spain tie will be on Tennis Channel in the States, with streams of the other semifinals likely findable somewhere on the world wide web.

Only the first two match-ups in each tie are locked in, the rest are subject to change(*).

CZECH REPUBLIC @ CROATIA
Sportska Dvorana, Porec, Croatia (Indoor Clay)

Ivo Karlovic (CRO) v Radek Stepanek (CZE)
Marin Cilic (CRO) v Tomas Berdych (CZE)
Roko Karanusic/Lovro Zovko (CRO) v Lukas Dlouhy/Jan Hajek (CZE)*
Marin Cilic (CRO) v Radek Stepanek (CZE)*
Ivo Karlovic (CRO) v Tomas Berdych (CZE)*

The clay that was so helpful in defeating the Americans shouldn't do the Croatians many favors against the Czechs, who are arguably more comfortable on the stuff than the hosts.  If I was Croatia, I would have tried to find a grass court.  The clay should neutralize Cilic and Karlovic's power, and Berdych and Stepanek's superior movement should put them on top.  Berdych and Stepanek are two of the most unpredictable players in the game, but I like the Czechs to pull off the upset.
Prediction: Czech Republic 3-2


ISRAEL @ SPAIN
Venue: Polaris World la Torre Golf Resort, Torre Pacheco, Murcia (Outdoor Clay)

David Ferrer (ESP) v Harel Levy (ISR)
Juan Carlos Ferrero (ESP) v Dudi Sela (ISR)
Feliciano Lopez/Tommy Robredo (ESP) v Andy Ram/Jonathan Erlich (ISR)*
David Ferrer (ESP) v Dudi Sela (ISR)*
Juan Carlos Ferrero (ESP) v Harel Levy (ISR)*

Even without their two highest ranked players, Rafael Nadal and Fernando Verdasco, Spain should be in no trouble against Israel.  On clay, in front of a home crowd, Ferrer and Ferrero should be unchallenged by either Sela or Levy.  It was an incredible run for Israel to get this far, but it's going to end with a thud.
Prediction: Spain 5-0

There are also eight playoff ties for spots in the world group: Austria at Chile, Ukraine at Belgium, Ecuador at Brazil, France at Netherlands, India at South Africa, Uzbekistan at Serbia, Romania at Sweden, and Switzerland at Italy.  Lot of big stakes for all involved countries, as a fairly uneven draw gives some lesser countries an opportunity to sneak through to the world group.

Should be a good weekend of tennis to wrap up what has otherwise been a fairly dull, hungover week following the US Open.