Wimbledon 2011: Gentlemen's Singles Preview -- Ten Men To Watch

While order was seemingly restored by the renewal of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer's proclivity to meet in grand slam finals, there's a whole lot more to the men's field than just those two.  Here's a look at the ten men with the best chance to take home Wimbledon 2011 (in order of their positions in the draw).

Rafael Nadal (Spain) [1] -- Number 1. The defending champion, who hasn't lost at Wimbledon since 2007.  The defending French Open champion.  The defending US Open Champion. And so on.  But for whatever reason, I'm not loving Nadal's prospects this Wimbledon.  Nadal looked awful (by his standards) at Queen's Club, and even called the tournament director afterwards to apologize for his uncharacteristically poor play.  Nadal has willed his way to victory through patchy play many times before, but I don't know that he will be able to do that against tough competition on grass.  Yes, I know he has won Wimbledon twice, but I think he's still far less invincible on the lawns than on clay.  If Nadal doesn't hit his stride in the first week, he could be out of this tournament very quickly, at the hands of a Milos Raonic in the third round, or perhaps a suddenly grassophilic Juan Martin del Potro in the fourth.  But if he plays well enough to be winning matches in the second week, he may well not be beaten.

Milos Raonic (Canada) [31] -- Remember the scare John Isner put into Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon? Big serving and a big forehand pushed Nadal to the brink on clay, and I have to think that that sort of power on grass will do even more damage.  And the player most likely to give Nadal that sort of challenge in this tournament is Milos Raonic, the tower of Canadian power who is playing his first Wimbledon. If he can get past Nadal (and that is an "if" of absurd proportions, granted), I don't see anyone else in his quarter of the draw who I would favor to prevent Raonic from reaching the semifinals.  Of course, as untested as he is on this stage and on grass, Raonic could just as easily lose to Fabio Fognini in the first round or Tommy Haas in the second.

Tomas Berdych (Czech Republic) [6] -- Tomas Berdych had himself an enormous Wimbledon 2010, upsetting Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic on his way to his first career grand slam final.  Since losing that final in straight sets (and a tough loss to Federer in Toronto), though, Berdych hasn't been anywhere near as sharp. He lost in the first round of the 2010 US Open, and then in the first round of this year's French Open, an event at which he was defending semifinalist.  If Berdych doesn't recapture some of last year's magic, his ranking could be in for a rough tumble.  Berdych doesn't have a tough draw (though he didn't have one in Paris when he lost to qualifier Stephane Robert, either), and if he plays to his potential he should skate into the fourth round, where he will likely beat either Mardy Fish or Fernando Verdasco, before losing to Nadal (or Raonic) in the quarterfinals.  But if he's off his game, this could be a real fast tournament for Tomas.

Andy Murray (Great Britain) [4] -- The annual British hope has a very nice draw to start this tournament, but could be in some light trouble in the third round against Sergei Stakhovsky or Marin Cilic, both dangerous players who haven't been their sharpest at the moment.  And in the fourth round he could face Stan Wawrinka, who upset him in the third round of the US Open in 2010.  But the problem for Murray hasn't been his ability to make his way through draws, it's been his lack of big wins in the very latest stages.  And in those late stages in 2011, he'll likely have to go through Andy Roddick, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic to take this title.  And that's a big ask for a guy with no slams to his name, no matter what the crowd is like.

Andy Roddick (United States) [8] -- Andy Roddick probably won't win another slam, at this point.  It's not impossible, but the chips would have to fall into the right places.  And at this slam, they could for him.  Roddick doesn't really have any scary competition to speak of in his first few rounds, though he could have a tough time against Janko Tipsarevic in the fourth round.  Tipsarevic has twice knocked Roddick out of a slam, but I don't think Tipsarevic is likely enough to make the second week to face Roddick.  In the quarterfinals Roddick would most likely face a Murray, Wawrinka, or Richard Gasquet, all of whom could beat him, but all of whom he could beat.  And if he gets to face Nadal, Raonic, Federer or Djokovic in the tournament's business end, he could beat all of them as well.  There are going to be some tight, gut check matches in this tournament for Roddick.  Should be fun to watch. 

David Ferrer (Spain) [7] -- David Ferrer has never made the quarterfinals of Wimbledon, but he should be a lock to at least make the fourth round with his draw.  Current 's-Hertogenbosch finalist Ivan Dodig could knock him out quickly in the second round, but Ferrer is going to win any early match he gets a foothold in.  But if he meets Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the fourth round, it's buenas noches for David.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (France) [10] -- Jo-Wilfried Tsonga burst onto the tennis scene emphatically at the 2008 Australian Open, upsetting Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal on his way to the final.  But he's been without a real breakthrough performance since, with only one grand slam semifinal in the time since.  He's not a favorite at this year's Wimbledon, by any stretch, but he should be a quarterfinalist.  If Roger Federer underestimates him (which he well could), Tsonga could sneak a set or two.  And if he gets two sets, why can't he get three? And if he is playing well enough to beat Federer, surely he could beat Djokovic, right? And if he's in the final, anything could happen, right?

Roger Federer (Switzerland) [3] -- Roger Federer played his best tennis of this decade at Roland Garros this year, upsetting the previously undefeated Novak Djokovic to make the final, where he put up an impressive effort against Rafael Nadal before losing in a four-set match that was much closer than the scoreline indicated.  If Federer plays as well at Wimbledon as he did against Djokovic, he will win this title, no question.  But how will he recover from playing so well and still not walking away with the trophy? He poutily pulled out of Halle, provoking even greater pouting from the tournament director there.  But assuming he's emotionally fine (which always is, truthfully), he has a real nice draw here.  David Nalbandian is an unpredictable third round opponent with five career wins over Federer, but if he can get through that it's tough to see anyone stopping him before a semifinal match against Novak Djokovic or Robin Soderling.  Past that, who knows.

Robin Soderling (Sweden) [5] -- In the last four Wimbledons, Robin Soderling has lost to either Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer.  Which means, of course, that he hasn't lost to anyone else.  With his game and indoor successes, grass should be his best surface.  And with a draw that takes him through Djokovic before Federer or Nadal, Soderling could definitely make some noise in this tournament.  He could even win it.  Or he could lose in the first round to recent Halle finalist Philipp Petzschner.  But somewhere in the middle seems most likely.

Novak Djokovic (Serbia) [2] -- After winning his first forty-one matches of 2011, Novak Djokovic finally lost, upset by Roger Federer in the French Open semifinal, falling to the mortal record of 41-1.  Djokovic is a player who feeds off swagger and confidence like few others in the men's game, and if his ego took a severe hit from that loss, his tennis will as well.  Djokovic did not play a warm up tournament, opting only to play a warm-up event called The Boodles, which just sounds like a ridiculous decision.  Djokovic can fake his way into the quarterfinals with some ease, but once he faces Robin Soderling things will get real tough real fast.  If the swagger is back, the wins will follow (and the almost inevitable ATP No. 1 ranking).  But if there's any lingering self doubt, especially in a potential semifinal against his conqueror Roger Federer, Djokovic won't be making his first Wimbledon final this time around.