US Open Men's Singles Predictions (First Quarter)

Before they get underway on Day 2 action, here is my preview of the top of the 2010 Men's Singles Draw, the Rafael Nadal Quarter.

Once the remaining two sections of previews are done (the second quarters of both the men's and women's singles draws), I'll put up my entire draws, with some reference links for easier navigation.

First Quarter:

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) v Teymuraz Gabashvili RUS
Maximo Gonzalez ARG v Denis Istomin UZB
Gilles Simon FRA v Donald Young USA [WC]
Tobias Kamke GER v Philipp Kohlschreiber GER (29)

This is a real nice section of the draw for Rafael Nadal to use to play himself into form.  He'll get to feel a pretty good deal of power from Gabashvili, but with little enough consistency so as not to scare him.  Then recent New Haven finalist Denis Istomin will arrive and be a steadier test, but one who also isn't a real threat to beat Nadal.  Then Nadal will get a different look from the winner of the Kohlschreiber-Simon match (I pick Simon), who will get a lot more balls back and not generate quite as much pace on his own.  It should all serve as a very nice primer for Nadal's US Open.  The match against Simon, which will likely be a day match during CBS's weekend coverage, could be a real good one.  Predicted Round of 16er: Rafael Nadal

Feliciano Lopez ESP (23) v Santiago Giraldo COL
Rainer Schuettler GER v Benoit Paire FRA [Q]
Sergiy Stakhovsky UKR v Peter Luczak AUS
Ryan Harrison USA [Q] v Ivan Ljubicic CRO (15)

There's a big disparity in this section between the "have"s and the "have-nots."  Seeds Feliciano Lopez and Ivan Ljubicic, as well as Sergiy Stakhovsky, are the "have"s, while the rest are left to wait until they are eliminated by one of those three.  Santiago Giraldo has an enormous forehand and should be able to hang with Lopez, but his results have been lagging of late.  Lopez should make it through that match and the winner of Schuettler-Paire pretty straightforwardly, even if Paire is a decidedly unstraightforward player (as recently documented by Foot Fault).  I wouldn't be surprised to see young and consistently improving American Ryan Harrison take a set or two off of Ljubicic, but I think the big, bald Croat is going to make it through that match before he bows out to Stakhovsky.  Lopez-Stakhovsky could go either way, but I think eventually Stakhovsky's heavy recent schedule will get the better of him.  Predicted Round of 16er: Feliciano Lopez

David Ferrer ESP (10) v Alexandr Dolgopolov UKR
Benjamin Becker GER v Daniel Brands GER
Jarkko Nieminen FIN v Daniel Gimeno-Traver ESP
Jeremy Chardy FRA v Ernests Gulbis LAT (24)

The four best players in this section will be two by the time the second round arrives, thanks to the brutal draws assigned to Dolgopolov and Chardy.  I don't see either pulling off the upset, but it's impossible to know with Gulbis.  That said, I have renewed faith in the enigmatic Latvian's heart and desire to improve since talking to him in Cincinnati.  He's at a career high ranking, and really pushed Andy Murray in a Cincinnati match that Gulbis eventually lost in a third set tiebreak. If he and Ferrer do make it to the third round as I expect, that match should be a good one.  Ultimately, I think this explosive surface helps Gulbis more, so I'll take him to make it to the second week.  Predicted Round of 16er: Ernests Gulbis

David Nalbandian ARG (31) v Rik de Voest RSA [Q]
Florent Serra FRA v Florian Mayer GER
Pere Riba ESP v Adrian Mannarino FRA [Q]
Fabio Fognini ITA v Fernando Verdasco ESP (8)

This section is nothing but the seeds, but man those are two tough seeds.  When Nalbandian and Verdasco clash in the third round, it could well be one of the best matches of the tournament.  Nalbandian played incredibly well in Washington, winning his first tournament back from injury in utterly dominant fashion.  He cooled slightly since, getting stopped in straight sets by Murray and Djokovic in Toronto and Cincinnati, respectively.   Fernando Verdasco isn't playing particularly inspired ball at the moment, though he still has much more recent slam experience than Nalbandian, and vastly superior endurance.  Question marks surround Nalbandian's fitness, as always, but I think he is simply the more talented player.  Sometimes that matters.  Predicted Round of 16er: David Nalbandian