US Open Men's Singles Predictions (Fourth Quarter)

Next we have the predictions for the bottom fourth of the 2010 US Open Men's Singles draw, the Roger Federer Quarter.

Fourth Quarter:

Robin Soderling SWE (5) v Andreas Haider-Maurier AUT [Q]
Taylor Dent USA v Alejandro Falla COL
Thiemo de Bakker NED v Marc Gicquel FRA [Q]
Ivan Dodig CRO [Q] v Fernando Gonzalez CHI (27)

This is a nice draw for more of these people than makes sense.  Robin Soderling has lost to either Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal at six of the last seven grand slams, so he should be pretty confident in these early round matches.  Taylor Dent could take a set off Soderling with big serving, but he likely won't do more than that.  A consistent Thiemo de Bakker or a healthy Fernando Gonzalez could make him work in the third round, but I don't expect either player to arrive in that fashion.  Recent TDF interviewee Thiemo de Bakker also has to like early rounds he's been given at his first US Open.  Marc Gicquel is one of the tougher qualifiers, but then he faces the winner of a match between harmless Ivan Dodig and the extremely rusty Fernando Gonzalez, who has only played one match since the French Open.  In summary, Soderling should make it through de Bakker fairly straightforwardly. Predicted Round of 16er: Robin Soderling

Albert Montanes ESP (21) v Michal Przysiezny POL
Carsten Ball AUS [WC] v Milos Raonic CAN [Q]
Kei Nishikori JPN [Q] v Evgeny Korolev KAZ
Illya Marchenko UKR v Marin Cilic CRO (11)

You know it's an easy section of the draw when Albert Montanes gets penciled into the third round without a second of hesitation.  The bottom half of this octet is decidedly messier.  Kei Nishikori recently won the challenger in Binghamton, which combined with his three wins in qualifying gives the young Japanese player an eight-match win streak.  He made it to the fourth round of the US Open in 2008, the last time he played the event.  Marin Cilic made the quarterfinals of the US Open last year and the semfinals of the Australian Open this year, but has really struggled since, a slide that has included first round losses at Wimbledon, Toronto, and Cincinnati.  Marchenko is an extremely competent player who I initially had taking out Cilic in the first round, but I eventually decided to postpone his exit to the second round, where I have Nishikori taking him out.  If he gets past Cilic (a big "if"), Nishikori should have little trouble with Montanes.  Rolling the dice here... Predicted Round of 16er: Kei Nishikori

Jurgen Melzer AUT (13) v Dmitry Tursunov RUS
Ricardas Berankis LTU [Q] v Ryan Sweeting USA [WC]
Bjorn Phau GER v Ricardo Mello BRA
Martin Klizan SVK [Q] v Juan Carlos Ferrero ESP (22)

Jurgen Melzer should get through struggling comebacker Dmitry Tursunov and big hitting American upstart Ryan Sweeting, but I see him failing to live up to what is his highest seeding yet at a grand slam.  Juan Carlos Ferrero won his most recent tournament, a hard court event in Umag, Croatia, but did not play Washington, Toronto, or Cincinnati as he had been scheduled to.  He should skate into the third round with some ease, though it is good to see former "next big thing" Martin Klizan finally make it into a grand slam.  Based on his past successes at this tournament, I like Ferrero's chances. Predicted Round of 16er: Juan Carlos Ferrero

Lleyton Hewitt AUS (32) v Paul-Henri Mathieu FRA
Leonardo Mayer ARG v Guillaume Rufin FRA [WC]
Michael Berrer GER v Andreas Beck GER
Brian Dabul ARG v Roger Federer SUI (2)

It's pretty ridiculous how often Lleyton Hewitt finds himself in Federer's section of the draw.  That said, it doesn't seem like much of a pity this time around, since Hewitt's not playing particularly other-worldly ball at the moment.  This section, like most Federer sections, is extremely straightforward, and will see Federer easily take out Hewitt (or possibly Mathieu if Paul-Henri can pull off the early upset).  The real question in this section is why Guillaume Rufin of all people got the FFT's wild card, since Nicolas Mahut would seem to be a far worthier French candidate.  Mahut still has an outside shot of getting in as an LL (and ironically could if Isner withdraws), but it looks like Rufin is left to fly the flag for the French scrubs.  Predicted Round of 16er: Roger Federer