Wimbledon 2010 Odds-Watch: Women

For our earlier breakdown of the men's odds, click here.

Twenty-three women are given odds better than 100/1 to win Wimbledon, significantly more than the seventeen men given those odds by the same bookmaker.  In this post-Schiavone era in which we live, that only makes perfect sense.

The odds from the folks who try to quantify the chaos, British bookmaker William Hill, are after the jump, as well as analysis and recommendations:

Let's start at the top.

The Williams sisters as the top two favorites with roughly the same odds makes perfect sense.  Serena is the more consistent, but Venus has the grass chops.  Totally indisputable. 

Justine Henin at third-best is also understandable, but she has still only won one tournament since 2008, and never was much on grass.  She shouldn't lose to anybody too random, but I also would not give her the slightest chance of beating either Williams sister.

Maria Sharapova is known for her grass court chops because it was her breakout surface early in her career, but she really hasn't been much on it lately, not making the quarterfinals since 2008.  With the way her serve has been breaking down, she's not a safe bet at all.

Samantha Stosur has the serve and forehand power to succeed on grass, but the grass doesn't give her quite as much time as clay did to run around her backhand, nor does it pick up her huge topspin in the same way.  Not a smart bet.

Kim Clijsters has been out since April with injury, but she's as good after a protracted layoff as anybody (see her titles at the US Open and even Brisbane), and just crushed the struggling Yanina Wickmayer 6-1, 6-1 in the first round of Eastbourne.

Caroline Wozniacki is the WTA #3 at the moment, but it would be a huge, huge surprise to me for her to beat anybody of consequence at Wimbledon.  Her pushing style will get her nowhere on the grass, as evidenced by the drubbing she was handed by the likes of Sabine Lisicki on the grass last  year.  She did manage to win a title at Eastbourne last year, but was already bounced in the first round there this week. 

Jelena Jankovic is always a tough out, but I have to think she's trending down with the lackluster way she was steamrolled by Stosur in Paris.  She is one of a small handful of players in the WTA who never be counted out of any match up, but the results haven't been there lately.

Victoria Azarenka has had an absolutely atrocious 2010 ever since blowing a big lead in the Australian Open quarterfinals against Serena Williams.  She did get a nice win over Agnieszka Radwanska in the first round of Eastbourne on Tuesday, and the grass should suit her ballbashing, so I'd give her an outside chance if she can prove through the rest of this week in Eastbourne that her first round win wasn't a fluke.

Svetlana Kuznetsova, who was ranked at #3 earlier this year, has fallen all the way to #20.  She's wildly inconsistent, but not in the positive way that makes for occasional surprise success.  The two slams she won in her career were ones in which she was the last one standing in the rubble of a decimated draw, so a lot of other people will have to do her dirty work if she is to survive this tournament.  Plus, she has a nearly unparalleled ability to lose to absolutely anybody.  Pass.

Ana Ivanovic is a well-documented mess, though she actually did have a pretty solid 2009 Wimbledon, making the fourth round with a win over Stosur.  But her house is not in order enough to give her a shot at winning consistently.

Yanina Wickmayer lost last week to Alison Riske.  That should be enough to base your decision on.

The two biggest sleepers, in my eyes, are the two women at 40/1--Aravane Rezai and Li Na. 

Li Na just won the warm-up tournament in Birmingham, and has made deep runs at Wimbledon before.  She made it to the semifinals of the Australian Open, and generally brings her best tennis to the big stages like few other women of her relative obscurity do.  She did drop out of her first round match at Eastbourne with injury, but the word seems to be that its entirely preventative.

Aravane Rezai soaks up the limelight tremendously well, and if she can survive her anonymous first few matches on outside courts, I like her chances to ride her absurd power a long way in this tournament.

Three headcase Russians--Dinara Safina, Vera Zvonareva, and Nadia Petrova--are lumped together at 50/1.  Safina is mid-freefall and should not be trusted.  As much as her ranking has already fallen (down to #21 from #1 last fall), it will fall even more once she fails to defend her semifinalist points here from last year.  Vera Zvonareva's game doesn't translate to grass at all, and she's been serving up collapse after collapse at slams lately.

Nadia Petrova is an interesting quantity in this tournament, and would not be a terrible player to make a favored longshot.  She's quietly made the quarterfinals at both previous grand slams this year, and could equal that feat with the right draw.  She has the serve and power to make a lot of noise on grass, it's just a question of if she can play her best tennis in the middle and late stages of a tournament for once.

Francesca Schiavone is getting absolutely no love at 50/1, despite being a quarterfinalist at Wimbledon last year and winning some fairly significant title in France a couple weeks ago.  She's probably mentally exhausted and hasn't been practicing much, but I'm still sort of surprised to see this little betting action on her.  I wouldn't bet on her, but I guess I'm surprised that there's a clear consensus with me.

Agnieszka Radwanska may be the quietest long-term top ten player ever, and she's made the quarterfinals of this tournament two years in a row.  But once she gets there, she routinely gets blown out of the water.

It's getting to be put-up-or-shut-up time for Melanie Oudin, who might actually be seeded at this tournament.  She still seems to have a tremendous amount of self-belief, and her great anticipation should help her on grass.  But I don't see a big run coming at all.

Alisa Kleybanova is one of my absolute favorite players in tennis to watch.  She makes every match into a ridiculously tumultuous brawl, and will challenge any opponent unlucky enough to draw her.  Her style is a little too draining for me to think she can make it work in this big a field, but she'll definitely be a ton of fun to watch as long as she does last.

Last and least, I can't even begin to explain why #86 Stefanie Voegele is being given any shot at all. 

I only included the players with odds better than 100/1, but I should add that at exactly 100/1, Marion Bartoli is about as good a long shot as you will ever find.  She made the finals of this tournament only three years ago (beating Jankovic, Henin, and Peer), and her angles and low balls work beautifully on grass.

My recommendations? Li Na, Aravane Rezai, Kim Clijsters and the Williams sisters, especially if one of them winds up on the soft half of a lopsided draw the way Francesca Schiavone did in Paris.  It's predictable advice, but I see this women's draw being surprisingly surprise-free.