Wimbledon 2010 Odds-Watch: Men

With the start of Wimbledon now less than a week away, the British bookies are hard at work tapping the blokes and misses most likely to give a good return on your lot of quid.  Sports betting permeates the British Isles like nowhere else in the world, and the odds for Wimbledon are one of their most popular stakes each year.

The odds reflect betting patterns more than actual probability of winning, with odds rising and falling with betting patterns more directly than with a players recent form or prospects.

With that in mind, here are the most recent odds from leading bookmaker William Hill on the Gentlemen's Singles Champion (everyone better than 100/1):

Let's start at the top.  Federer, Nadal, and Murray make sense as a top three, with the first two being the two most recent champions and the third being the local favorite who has steadily improved each of the last years at the tournament.

Roddick over Djokovic is a little surprising, I guess, but given Djokovic's recent exits at the event it shouldn't be.

The most undervalued player, in my mind, is Soderling at 16/1.  Soderling has not made it to the quarterfinals of Wimbledon before, but in the last three years he's lost to players by the names of Federer, Federer, and Nadal.  None too shabby.  He can blast Nadal off a grass court in a way he couldn't with the combination of conditions and clay he faced in the Roland Garros final, and has the power, swagger and self-belief to beat everybody else, as well.

Lleyton Hewitt is also not a bad bet at 25/1.  If he plays like he did when he was eight years younger he could beat everybody.  But that's a big "if."

Tsonga and Cilic have both played terribly of late, and while the grass should help their power games I see both heading home early.

Mardy Fish better take a screen-capture of these odds for posterity, because there is no way he has ever been as good as 33/1 to win a slam, and there's no way he ever will be again.  Those are entirely silly odds for someone who would be a shock to make the second week.

Sam Querrey is lower than one might expect given his recent title in London last week, but he still has never made it to the quarterfinals or better of a slam, so it's understandable.  I'd also be fairly balky as a bettor about his total collapse at Roland Garros, and would wonder about his potential mental fatigue in an event that requires seven wins.

At 50/1 is a trio of well-known underachievers: Ernests Gulbis, Richard Gasquet, and Tomas Berdych.  All three are playing pretty solid tennis of late, though, with Gulbis beating Federer in Madrid, Gasquet winning Nice, and Berdych making it all the way to the semifinals of Roland Garros.  Of the three, my money is on Berdych.  His decisive wins in Paris over the likes of Andy Murray, Mikhail Youzhny and John Isner prove his ability to get big scalps on big stages, and his easy power and big serve should work wonders on grass.  He's made the quarterfinals of the tournament before, and with a fair draw he should do so again in 2010.

Feliciano Lopez at 66/1 is understandable given his recent win over Nadal and his run to the semifinals of Queen's Club, but I have absolutely no faith in his ability to string more than one big win together within a tournament.

John Isner seems undervalued at 66/1.  He has shown the ability to win big matches at slams, making the fourth round at both at the 2009 US Open (defeating Roddick) and the 2010 Australian Open (defeating Monfils).  Grass would seem to play right into his game as well, with his big serve and net ability making for a perfect grass combination.  He has an odd 1-4 career record on grass, but that's mostly due to lack of match play on the stuff.  If he's fully healthy (and he might not be given that he recently withdrew from Eastbourne), I like his chances to make a lot of noise.

So if I was a betting man (and I probably would be if I lived in the UK with a betting parlor on every corner), I'd be putting my money on Soderling, Berdych, and Isner.

If you take my advice and it pays off for you, please be a good chap and tithe me 40% or so of your winnings, please.  I'd be most grateful.