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What We Learned From The Australian Open: ATP Edition

Nothing we haven't seen before. (Photo: WILLIAM WEST/AFP/Getty Images)

Nothing we haven't seen before. (Photo: WILLIAM WEST/AFP/Getty Images)

Sorry for the delay, folks.  Weather has not been kind to my internet access here in Washington...

Here's what we learned at the Australian Open about the top eight in the ATP (using their new post-Aussie rankings), as well as a few other notables.

#1 Roger Federer (Champion - Stays at #1) -- There were some hiccups against Russians along the way, but in the end it was yet another routine, straight sets victory in a slam final for Roger Federer, winning his sweet sixteenth.  He didn't look unbeatable, but he didn't get beaten.  The killer instinct that was questionable in New York against del Potro was definitely there against Murray, almost certainly because he just doesn't seem to like the Scot at all.  If he can muster that same disdain in the rest of his slam finals, no reason he can't reach 20.  Here's a stat that I don't think anyone else has come up with yet: With this Australian Open title, his first since Melbourne Park switched over to the blue stuff in 2008, Federer becomes the first player to win slams on five different surfaces (grass, clay, Rebound Ace, DecoTurf, Plexicushion).

#2 Novak Djokovic (lost in quarterfinals to Tsonga - Was #3) -- Congrats to Djokovic on making it to a career high ranking of #2, but man, did he ever fail to get any style points in the process.  After running through one of the softest slam draws in recent memory (Gimeno-Traver, Chiudinelli, Istomin, Kubot), Djokovic flamed out against the first tough opponent he faced, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.  He outplayed Tsonga for the first three sets, but then physically broke down with a mess of nausea and exhaustion, losing the fourth and fifth sets in short order.    While draws at major tournaments will feature a "Djokovic half" for the first time, he's hardly a lock for the finals with these questions still lingering about his conditioning when the going gets tough.

#3 Andy Murray (lost in final to Federer - Was #4) -- Definitely a strong run for Murray, but like Djokovic his bump in the rankings comes with more questions attached than answers.  And while the British media does deserve just about all the flak they're getting for wondering aloud if Murray will ever win a slam, they do have a point.  He may be "only" 22, but the last player to win a first career slam at an older age was Gaston Gaudio back in 2004.  Djokovic, Nadal, and del Potro (and Federer and Roddick just before Gaudio) were all younger when they struck paydirt for the first time.

#4 Rafael Nadal (lost to Murray in quarterfinal - Was #2) -- Nadal's lowest ranking since 2005 is all about not being able to complete his title defense due to injury on the surface, but in reality he was never going to be competitive against Murray in his quarterfinal loss.  Nadal lost bulky muscle up top in an announced attempt to keep his lower body healthier, but he's now less powerful and still perpetually injury prone.  I think it's about time to stick a fork in this career, sadly.  Many say he still has a shot on the clay, but from where I sit I can't imagine that long, grinding matches are the cure for what ails him.

#5 Juan Martin del Potro (lost to Cilic in fourth round - Stays at #5) -- del Potro didn't do much with having a quarter to his name for the first time at a grand slam, but he never really looked 100% with his arm, either.  There was a real nice gut-check win in the second round vs. James Blake for him, but also a real bizarre bageling at the hands of Florian Mayer before he finally went down in a battle of attrition against Cilic in the fourth round.  Cilic was impossible to get any rhythm against the entire tournament, so it is a pretty excusable, explicable loss as far as I'm concerned.

#6 Nikolay Davydenko (lost to Federer in quarterfinal - Stays at #6) -- Hard to really grade Davydenko's run at this tournament.  He largely failed to live up to the darkhorse label that had been bestowed upon him by the fawning Mary Carillo, but he did show that he has the potential to beat the best in the world when at his best.  He looked absolutely untouchable for his first three matches, losing a combined seventeen games in those three straight sets wins.  But then he absolutely stunk up the joint halfway through his fourth round match against Fernando Verdasco, and then stunk up the joint again halfway through his quarterfinal vs. Federer, playing so listlessly as to not win a single game for an hour.  I think the French Open still represents his best shot to make a grand slam final, as it always has, but it's clear that he's going to need to learn not to peak too early if that's going to happen.

#7 Andy Roddick (lost to Cilic in quarterfinal - Stays at #7) -- He comes away having not defended his semifinal points from a year ago, but it was a real impressive run for Roddick.  That five-set win against Gonzalez is exactly the type of match he would have routinely lost from 2004-2008.  His comeback effort against Cilic was also pretty valiant, but in the end the result is probably a sign that he doesn't have what it takes to beat these big, young guns on a consistent basis.

#8 Robin Soderling (lost to Granollers in the first round - Stays at #8) -- A bizarre early exit for Soderling, who looked to be cruising against the weaponless Granollers early on then totally fell apart as the match wore on, losing his two-set lead on the way to a first round exit.  The surface in Melbourne is probably too slow for him to have made much noise.  I'm more interested to see what he'll do in Dubai, Miami, and Wimbledon.  I still don't understand how his best ever run at a major was on clay, and I refuse to believe it could happen again.

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I can’t tell you how bummed out I am by the seeming decline of Nadal. I really love to watch this guy play and he seems like such a good guy as well, but his entire career you could tell he might not last long with his style of play. I hope he’s not done, but I’m not optimistic.

That actually reminds me of Roddick early in his career. I remember thinking “can his shoulder hold up with that kind of serve?” And it really has as far as I can see. It’s interesting looking back at how many times Roddick has lost in slam finals. If he won all those finals he would be in the Nadal category in terms of a rival to Federer and multiple-slam winner. I hope he can get another slam title before his career is over.

I also think that Murray can win a slam soon, provided he can figure out a way to beat Federer. He seemed like yet another player who was intimidated by Federer and just didn’t have a lot of energy in the match. Maybe he can get over that if they play again.

by hornbone on Feb 9, 2010 1:58 PM EST reply actions  

good points

i have to agree with you on Nadal he has declined and he basically in my opinion will probably only contend at the french. but the only way Murrary wiil ever win a slam is when Federer retires or he finds some way to let the pressure of a entire nation not get to him and just play tennis. I love what Roddick has done with his game despite the loss in the quarters he has improved his all-around game slighty not federer like but slighty i like how he is not just relying on his monster serve

by Lancers25 on Feb 9, 2010 4:38 PM EST up reply actions  

To me, Roddick has been one of the most consistent and consistently improving and hard-working players of the last eight years or so. Maybe second only to Federer. He just hasn’t been able to break through and win another slam after his US Open win.

by hornbone on Feb 9, 2010 8:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I think you are out front on the Nadal story

Simply put, the body cannot handle that pit-bull style for long. I remember watching Hewitt at the ATP Masters end of year where he secured #1 for the second year. He played Juan Carlos Ferrero and won the match. But you could tell he was physically whupped. That kind of toll, I think even more so with Nadal, makes for a short career.

Also, I think it’s hard to go back in history very far to compare Nadal. The game is increasingly a young man’s game, and the beating the body takes has never been more severe.

I think he may have one more French in him, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

"Yes Gina, I am a Wise Cracker"

by lcollins1 on Feb 13, 2010 2:02 AM EST reply actions  

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