Theory 1:  Delayed

Ok so Fed went down in the final to an upstart kid we all had our eye on.  Del Potro was on a mission.  After all, he beat down Nadal in the semis, even if it was Nadal at about 60%, and nobody has ever beaten Fed and Nadal in a single slam.  We can liken this Open to Kuerten winning the French a couple times in the midst of Sampras' glory.  Fed won two slams this year, and as Pete himself used to say, 'a good year is when I win one slam, a great year is when I win two'.  Even by Fed's closest historical competition, this was a great year for Fed.  He's never been seriously injured, he is in the heart of his prime slam winning years, and the stability in his family will propel him to several more slams in the next 3 years.  Also, his ballerina movement allows him to play brutal matches without significant strain on the body.  Players only beat Fed when they're in the 'tree' and he's playing less than Federesque tennis, and even then it's no sure win.  Look for Fed to win another couple of Slams in '09. 

Theory 2:  Derailed

We saw a true changing of the guard Monday.  It reminded me of watching Safin absolutely blast Pistol Pete from the Open final court near the end of Pete's reign.  Once Del Potro found his groove, we saw the chinks in Fed's armor: he's capable of being blasted off the court.(see generally, Safin v. Fed when Safin's not high)  His game can look anemic at times, he's slowing down a step or two, and he's struggling to 'get up' on his serve.  And, Del Potro didn't turn on the jets until mid-way through the 4th set.  A relaxed Del Potro, the one we will likely see in his next Slam appearances, will have the guns and mentality to dismiss Fed in quick order.

Perhaps the biggest knock on Fed are the his kids.  While it may be hard to hold it against him from a human perspective, Fed's looking outside the court these days.  He's established himself as the greatest player of all time (in my mind anyway).  Early in his career, Fed himself talked about the battle against history, and that battle is over.  Without that 'eternal' motivation, Fed will be a repeat 'mark' for younger guns like Del Potro, Cilic, Nadal, and even Soderling.  Every King loses their crown eventually, and Fed's time is up.  

I'm not sure. I didn't like what I saw on Monday, but what do you think?