US Open Day 15 Prediction: Men's Final
by Ben Rothenberg on Sep 14, 2009 5:11 AM EDT
in Analysis
4 comments
After over two weeks of rain, upsets, tears, and a threat to force playing equipment into official's orifices, we've finally made it to the end of the US Open. Before you get too excited by the finish line nearing, remember that the next race doesn't begin for over four months. So savor this last bite of grand slam action while you can.
Only one singles match left to be decided, but this one should be awesome.
Before I get to this match, a partial run-down of what Federer could accomplish with a win on Monday:
- It would be Federer's sixth consecutive US Open title. Not only would he be the first player to win six consecutive US Opens, he would be the first to win ANY tournament six consecutive times, including grand slams and all the tour events, during the Open Era.
- It would be Federer's sixteenth Grand Slam title, putting some breathing room between himself and Pete Sampras' fourteen. It would also put him two ahead of Tiger Woods.
- Federer would become the first player ever to win three grand slams in a year four times.
- Federer would be one step away from a "Roger Slam," needing only to win the Australian Open in February to hold all four grand slam titles for the first time in his career.
With all that in mind, here's how I see things shaking out:
Men's Final:
Roger Federer SUI (1) vs. Juan Martin del Potro ARG (6) -- As one more reminder of just how consistent Federer has been, its worth mentioning that del Potro is Federer's sixth different opponent in his six US Open finals. And while he dispatched Hewitt, Agassi, Roddick, Djokovic, and Murray with some ease, del Potro could be the most dangerous opponent yet. Federer has never lost to del Potro, but he hasn't ever faced him on a hard court this fast. And it could be fair to say that he has never faced anyone who hits the ball as hard as del Potro does on a hard court this fast. When del Potro comes into a match without any self-belief (see his 6-3, 6-0, 6-0 loss to Federer in the Australian Open), it can get ugly. But del Potro is playing the best tennis of his life in this tournament, and should feel confident that he can blow even the world #1 off the court with his power. Set up your DVRs, folks--this one should be a lot of fun. Prediction: Federer in 5.
In the extremely unlikely event that I incorrectly predicted the winner of this match, it's going to be pretty interesting to see how Federer deals with losing. The last time he lost a grand slam final, remember, he broke down in tears. Will he have gained perspective since? Or will he melt into a puddle of crying again? Only time (and an incredible match from del Potro) will tell.
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Federer also faced another monster hitter, Marat Safin, and had a pretty good record against him. But I agree. This could be a really, really close final with some great shotmaking, maybe even rivaling the classic AO 05 semi between Roger and Marat. I’d go with Roger in 4, but I won’t be shocked if JMDP wins.
Regarding Roger’s reaction to a loss, I don’t think he’ll get as teary. He likes Del Potro and made the weird comment after the FO semi that he was actually disappointed that he had to beat him.
As much as I hope for another epic 5 setter, I think Roger has it in 3, or may drop a tiebreak. DelPo may be tense, which will allow Federer to wrap up the 1st set quickly. And Federer’s slice is going to be a huge weapon against Mr. DelPotro.
And I hope we get at least 4 as yesterday all the single matches were straight sets…
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