2009 US Open Men's Draw Breakdown

It seems fairly clear who the big names in the second week of the US Open will be, with several big names playing well and consistently over the last couple months.  But there's a lot of tennis to be played early on, and a lot of the story everyone is already writing could be totally rewritten.

After all, that's why they play the matches.

After the jump, a breakdown of each of the sixteen sections through the third round.

[1] FEDERER, Roger SUI vs (W) BRITTON, Devin USA
(Q) LAPENTTI, Giovanni ECU vs GREUL, Simon GER
CHELA, Juan Ignacio ARG vs HERNANDEZ, Oscar ESP
ALVES, Thiago BRA vs [31] HEWITT, Lleyton AUS

It's a very easy draw for both Roger Federer and Lleyton Hewitt to get to the third round, where everyone will be saying what a pity it was for Hewitt to have drawn Federer so early.  Federer has had Hewitt's number for year's now.  The only question will be whether or not he loses a combined 12 games in his first two matches.  Predicted Section Winner: Roger Federer

[21] BLAKE, James USA vs RAMIREZ HIDALGO, Ruben ESP
ROCHUS, Olivier BEL vs KUNITSYN, Igor RUS
(Q) POLANSKY, Peter CAN vs GARCIA-LOPEZ, Guillermo ESP
(Q) YOUNG, Donald USA vs [14] ROBREDO, Tommy ESP

This weak section is exactly what James Blake needed.  Blake has been atrocious in 2009--his ranking has fallen from #9 to #23 already.  He's lost his last five straight matches, including his last match to Igor Kunitsyn, who he could run into in the second round.  New York brings out his best tennis, but I don't know that it will be enough this year.  Tommy Robredo is always consistent and rarely spectacular, and that should be enough to get him through this section.  Rochus or Kunitsyn could also give Blake trouble if he's really off his game.  Predicted Section Winner: Tommy Robredo

[12] SODERLING, Robin SWE vs MONTANES, Albert ESP
ZVEREV, Mischa GER vs GRANOLLERS, Marcel ESP
KIM, Kevin USA vs SELA, Dudi ISR
(Q) YANI, Michael USA vs [22] QUERREY, Sam USA

Two of the best players this summer, Sam Querrey and Robin Soderling, should meet in what should be an intriguing third round match.  Zverev and Sela could take a set off their respective second round opponents, but it's hard to see any of the other six preventing the seeds from meeting in the third round.  It should be a good match, which could easily go five.  I see the American crowd pulling their man through.  Predicted Section Winner: Sam Querrey

[26] MATHIEU, Paul-Henri FRA vsYOUZHNY, Mikhail RUS
STARACE, Potito ITA vs (Q)CHIUDINELLI, Marco SUI
HERNYCH, Jan CZE vs SCHUETTLER, Rainer GER
(Q) KINDLMANN, Dieter GER vs [8] DAVYDENKO, Nikolay RUS

This section should be a cake walk for Davydenko, but more interestingly it brings a nice chance for Mikhail Youzhny to make some noise.  His first round vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu should be a barn burner, and if he can get through it he should make the third round as well.  But this is Davydenko's section to lose, and he rarely wastes soft draws.  Predicted Section Winner: Nikolay Davydenko

[4] DJOKOVIC, Novak SRB vs LJUBICIC, Ivan CRO
(Q)BRZEZICKI, Juan Pablo ARG vs (Q) BALL, Carsten AUS
BECK, Karol SVK vs GONZALEZ, Maximo ARG
(Q) WITTEN, Jesse USA vs [29] ANDREEV, Igor RUS

This is another pretty straight forward section for the top seed, as Djokovic really shouldn't be challenged.  The main threat to him making it out, as I see it, is qualifier Carsten Ball, who played great in his only ATP tournament of the year when he didn't drop a set on his way to the Los Angeles final.  He followed that performance up with two losses in the first round of challengers, so he's an enigma at best.  He could make life difficult for the 2007 finalist, but Djokovic should make it through.  Predicted Section Winner: Novak Djokovic

[23] KOHLSCHREIBER, Philipp GER vs SEPPI, Andreas ITA
(Q) DEVVARMAN, Somdev IND vs GIL, Frederico POR
GOLUBEV, Andrey KAZ vs MAYER, Leonardo ARG
BOLELLI, Simone ITA vs [15] STEPANEK, Radek CZE

This section is a seemingly pretty soft one, led by two players who can play very well in Stepanek and Kohlschreiber, but who haven't been of late.  I like Kohlschreiber to get through it, but I could also see him losing to Seppi.  Predicted Section Winner: Philipp Kohlschreiber

[10] VERDASCO, Fernando ESP vs BECKER, Benjamin GER
SERRA, Florent FRA vs TIPSAREVIC, Janko SRB
KENDRICK, Robert USA vs VASSALLO ARGUELLO, Martin ARG
(Q) FALLA, Alejandro COL vs [20] HAAS, Tommy GER

I could see Becker potentially making life difficult for Verdasco, but this should be another meeting in the third round between the seeds.  Verdasco has been playing incredibly well all year, and Haas is coming off a semifinal at Wimbledon (though not a stellar US Open Series).  I think Haas' consistency will give him an edge over the flashier Spaniard, and will put him into the fourth round.  Predicted Section Winner: Tommy Haas

[28] HANESCU, Victor ROU vs ISNER, John USA
(Q) ILHAN, Marsel TUR vs ROCHUS, Christophe BEL
GICQUEL, Marc FRA vs TURSUNOV, Dmitry RUS
PHAU, Bjorn GER vs [5] RODDICK, Andy USA

I like the big serving Americans on either side of this section to force a rematch of their great Washington semifinal, which Roddick won 7-5 in the third.  Roddick should win the rematch as well, and Isner should be happy to make it to the third round, matching his best slam performance from the 2007 US Open when he took a set off of Roger Federer.  Predicted Section Winner: Andy Roddick

Bottom Half


[7]TSONGA, Jo-Wilfried FRA vs (W) BUCHANAN, Chase USA
NIEMINEN, Jarkko FIN vs FOGNINI, Fabio ITA
CIPOLLA, Flavio ITA vs BENNETEAU, Julien FRA
(LL) LUCZAK, Peter AUS vs [30] TROICKI, Viktor SRB

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is a pretty unpredictable quantity, but this draw gives him plenty of time to get comfortable against some easy opponents before he faces tougher opposition in the second week.  If Nieminen is playing his best tennis he could make things interesting (as could Benneteau), but Tsonga should skate to the fourth round.  Predicted Section Winner: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

[17] BERDYCH, Tomas CZE vs ODESNIK, Wayne USA
(Q) BERRER, Michael GER vs (Q) ZEBALLOS, Federico BOL
(Q)OUANNA, Josselin FRA vs RAM, Rajeev USA
MASSU, Nicolas CHI vs [11] GONZALEZ, Fernando CHI

Always vocal, partisan supporters of their players, it will be interesting to see how the Chilean fans react to a match between two of their own.  Will they go wild after every point or not at all? Or will they just be completely confused and stay home? Either way, Gonzalez and Berdych should meet in the third round here. Wayne Odesnik could make things interesting potentially, as could Rajeev Ram, who won Newport this July as a Lucky Loser.  I like Gonzalez to make it through, but Berdych should put up a good fight.  Predicted Section Winner: Fernando Gonzalez

[13] MONFILS, Gael FRA vs CHARDY, Jeremy FRA
KOROLEV, Evgeny RUS vs BECK, Andreas GER
DANIEL, Marcos BRA vs ACASUSO, Jose ARG
MARTIN, Alberto ESP vs [18] FERRER, David ESP

This section full of clay courters should make for some interesting tennis on the fast courts of Flushing Meadows.  Ferrer made the semifinals of the Open in 2007, but Monfils is the better player if he's healthy and motivated.  That's too much to ask, probably, so the safe bet here is Ferrer.  Chardy does have the game to surprise, however, so I wouldn't be shocked to see him snap his way into the second week.  Predicted Section Winner: David Ferrer

[32] ALMAGRO, Nicolas ESPvs DARCIS, Steve BEL
GINEPRI, Robby USA vs PAVEL, Andrei ROU
(W) LLODRA, Michael FRA vs KIEFER, Nicolas GER
GASQUET, Richard FRA vs [3] NADAL, Rafael ESP

The match of the first round is certainly Nadal vs Gasquet, pitting two players from the same generation with a lot of potential against each other in what should be the night match on Ashe for Day 2.  Nadal, of course, is the one who has delivered on that potential, and though he hasn't been at his best since Madrid, Gasquet hasn't played a main draw match since Miami because of his cocaine suspension and successful appeal.  Nadal is vulnerable for sure, but I don't know that anyone in this section (or Ferrer's) can take him out.  Nadal will be given the most trouble by a big hitter, so when he runs into a player like Tsonga, Gonzalez, or Berdych he will be in trouble, but not before that.  Predicted Section Winner: Rafael Nadal

[6] DEL POTRO, Juan Martin ARG vs MONACO, Juan ARG
MELZER, Jurgen AUT vs SAFIN, Marat RUS
CUEVAS, Pablo URU vs (W) GUCCIONE, Chris AUS
KOELLERER, Daniel AUT vs (L) MACHADO, Rui POR

Mardy Fish's late pull out due to a broken rib (a rare tennis injury) makes this section even easier for Juan Martin del Potro.  The big story here is Marat Safin, in what is his last grand slam appearance should he keep his promise to retire at the end of the year.  Safin could show up motivated and scare del Potro, but he's more likely to go out with a whimper to Melzer.  On the bottom half of this section, it's a great opportunity for Tennis Australia's reciprocal wild card recipient to take advantage of a nice draw and ride his big serve to the third round.  Predicted Section Winner: Juan Martin del Potro

[24] FERRERO, Juan Carlos ESP vs SANTORO, Fabrice FRA
PETZSCHNER, Philipp GER vsSTAKHOVSKY, Sergiy UKR
(Q)BELLUCCI, Thomaz BRA vs LU, Yen-Hsun TPE
GIMENO-TRAVER, Daniel ESP vs [9] SIMON, Gilles FRA

This section could easily produce a surprise fourth-rounder, in the way of a Petzschner or Lu taking their decent summer form to the next level.  Ferrero made the quarterfinal at Wimbledon, but Simon has done a remarkable job of staying in the top ten longer than anyone thought he would by being able to make it through these easier draws consistently.  I like Ferrero to outgun him, but Simon could live up to his seeding.  Also, this could be the last chance to see Fabrice Santoro, so don't pass that up if you have the chance.  Predicted Section Winner: Juan Carlos Ferrero

[16] CILIC, Marin CRO vs (W) SWEETING, Ryan USA
GABASHVILI, Teimuraz RUS vs (W) LEVINE, Jesse USA
ISTOMIN, Denis UZB vs (W) EVANS, Brendan USA
LAPENTTI, Nicolas ECU vs [19] WAWRINKA, Stanislas SUI

Ever since winning his two singles matches vs. the United States to put Croatia in the Davis Cup semifinals, Marin Cilic has had a pretty awful hard court stretch, winning only one match in three tournaments.  Even not in top form, he has so much raw game that it will take a huge effort from Levine or Wawrinka to stop him from making the fourth round.  Predicted Section Winner: Marin Cilic

[27] KARLOVIC, Ivo CRO vs NAVARRO, Ivan ESP
LOPEZ, Feliciano ESP vs (W) DENT, Taylor USA
CAPDEVILLE, Paul CHI vs CRIVOI, Victor ROU
GULBIS, Ernests LAT vs [2] MURRAY, Andy GBR

The first #2 seed at a grand slam not named Nadal or Federer since Wimbledon 2005, Andy Murray has a lot of pressure on his shoulders at this US Open to at least repeat his finals appearance of last year.  He shouldn't have too much trouble with Gulbis or Karlovic, and should cruise through to the quarterfinal where he could have his hands full with del Potro.  Predicted Section Winner: Andy Murray