Doha Day 1 Preview

Three matches on the card for Day 1 in the desert of Doha, one from the White Group and two from the absurdly stronger Maroon Group.

The way that the draw for these round robin tournaments works is pretty simple.  The #1 and #2, #3 and #4, #5 and #6, and #7 and #8 players are paired off, and one from each pairing is put into each group.  And at least on first glance, the maroon group got the stronger player each time. 

Maroon's #2 Serena Williams is clearly light years ahead of the white group's #1 Dinara Safina.  #3 Svetlana Kuznetsova in the maroon group has had a stronger fall than injured #4 Caroline Wozniacki.  #5 Elena Dementieva is in the maroon group as well, a much scarier opponent than white's #6 Victoria Azarenka, who has made only one grand slam quarterfinal in her career compared to Dementieva's , and is playing in her first year-end championships.  #7 Venus Williams is in the maroon group as well, though her distance ahead of #8 Jelena Jankovic is probably the slightest of any of the pairings.

I think the theories that this draw was rigged that I've been hearing are totally ludicrous, but it's definitely an uneven situation.

With that in mind, here are Tuesday's three matches in Qatar, which feature the 1v2 and 3v4 matches in the maroon group, and the 3v4 clash in the white group.

White Group: Victoria Azarenka BLR [6] vs. Jelena Jankovic SRB [8] -- Azarenka's mindless ball bashing will be tested by Jankovic's defense, which when at it's best should be plenty to unravel the unsteady Belorussian.  But Jankovic has been battling injury since the Tokyo final, and if she's not able to get full weight on her shots Azarenka should be able to cruise.  Prediction: Azarenka in 2.

Maroon Group: Elena Dementieva RUS [5] vs. Venus Williams USA [7] -- This should be a very pretty match up between two veteran women with great movement and fluid groundstrokes, who are both capable of dictating play and finding power from any part of the court.  But they've both been far from their best this fall, winning a combined four matches since the US Open.  This one could be real ugly, and when the going gets ugly Venus's game often gets ugliest.  Prediction: Dementieva in 3.

Maroon Group: Serena Williams USA [2] vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova RUS [3] -- After her title in Beijing, one of the biggest titles of her career, Kuznetsova is the only player coming into this event with any semblance of momentum.  But ending the year at #1 has to be at the front of Serena's mind coming into this event, and when she has the ranking in her sights she usually plays better.  If Kuznetsova keeps playing as well as she did in Beijing she could make this one a quick win, but if Serena can get her teeth into the match she'll find a way to win.  Prediction: S. Williams in 3.